958
FXUS65 KSLC 211916
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
116 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, NORTHEAST UT, AND SOUTHWEST WY EACH
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS FORECAST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES STATEWIDE TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH BOTH DAYS FEATURING MUCH OF UT OUTLINED WITHIN A
SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS (>58MPH) APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT LATER THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
A STRONGER MONSOONAL PUSH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF UT TODAY AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, SUBSIDENCE HAS BUILT IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL SERVE TO
OFFSET CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL AROUND 1400-1500, ENABLING THE
ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH CAPE GENERAL RANGING FROM
1000-1500J/KG STATEWIDE, THOUGH CAPE ~2000J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST UT. WITH PWATS GENERALLY 1.2" OR GREATER IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF UT (0.8-1.0" PWAT ANOMALIES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR), THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE EFFICIENT AND HEAVY
RAINMAKERS.
OF NOTE, MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE AN INCREASE TO AROUND
20-30KTS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PROVIDING
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS
STORMS PROPAGATING OFF TERRAIN, WHICH WILL BE THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN
WITH STORMS REMAINING ANCHORED TO TERRAIN. TYPICALLY, ENHANCED FLOW
WOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AREAWIDE AS STORMS WOULD NOT
REMAIN OVER PROBLEMATIC BASINS AND BURN SCARS LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAINMAKING STATUS OF THESE
STORMS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS EXPECTED, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES TO EXIST, PARTICULARLY IF REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS A
SINGLE AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF
BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 35KTS SUPPORTS ORGANIZED STORMS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES FOR LONGER. ADDITIONALLY, SHEAR ON THIS MAGNITUDE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT
WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING FURTHER.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF UT WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH AN EMPHASIS ON SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 58MPH. ACROSS MOST OF UT, PRIMARILY WESTERN AND NORTHERN, DCAPE
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL
YIELD A SCATTERED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT FINDS A BETTER MEDIUM
AMIDST THE HIGHER DCAPE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH.
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SHEAR TO AROUND 35KTS IS GREATEST, A WESTWARD PROPAGATING MCS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWESTERN CO. SOME MID-
LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF INITIATION (TO
AROUND 30-40KTS) WITH 1600-1800J/KG OF DCAPE IN PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH A FEW SEVERE GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS HIGH AS 70MPH THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS GLEN
CANYON/LAKE POWELL AND ADJACENT AREAS WITHIN EASTERN WAYNE,
GARFIELD, AND KANE COUNTIES.
A SIMILAR SETUP FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH STORM
MOTIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AS MID-LEVEL FLOW SEES A
SLIGHT DECREASE. FORTUNATELY, THIS WILL REDUCE WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT
AS WELL POTENTIALLY REDUCING THE LONGEVITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, EFFICIENT
RAINMAKING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINING ANCHORED TO TERRAIN TOMORROW.
FROM THURSDAY ON, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD, DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND FAVOR
TERRAIN AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE FORECAST
BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDIED AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND WITH GLOBAL SUITES
CONTINUING TO DISAGREE ON MOISTURE SCOURING, THOUGH THE BROADER
PATTERN IN PLACE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CONTINUATION OF
THE MONSOONAL PATTERN INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AVIATION
KSLC...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH ~30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION
MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL. CONVECTION COULD SWITCH US TO PREDOMINATE
SOUTHERLY QUITE A BIT EARLIER THAN USUAL. LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT WEAKER OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH ~2PM BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STORMS WEAKENING, BUT PERSISTING TO SOME
CAPACITY, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT UT
INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE STATE, HELPING MODERATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEE A NOTABLE UPTICK ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE STATE TODAY AS A STRONGER MONSOONAL PUSH ARRIVES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN PARALLEL TO I-15 EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AROUND 1200-1400 WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
UT AND SOUTHEAST UT MAY FEATURE SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58MPH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
/ DIURNAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCED WINDS AND GUSTS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR UTZ113-115>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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