784
FXUS65 KSLC 221811
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1211 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1001 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SPECIFICALLY GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH, IS WANING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY EACH AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS
FORECAST AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH MUCH OF UT OUTLINED WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) OF EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1001 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WE'VE OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING WILL WANE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH-RES MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING
OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE UINTA BASIN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT ARE LIKELY TO STAY SUB-SEVERE (<58 KTS) GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DCAPE DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AROUND MID-TO-LATE
MORNING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A
POTENTIALLY MORE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, AS SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. WEAKER FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STORMS TO BECOME ANCHORED TO TERRAIN, WHICH EXACERBATES THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK FOR TOMORROW. AS USUAL, AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN
INCLUDE NORMALLY DRY WASHES, SLOT CANYONS, AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD OUTDOORS IN THESE AREAS TOMORROW SHOULD
RECONSIDER PLANS. THOSE LIVING IN A LOCATION VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
THURSDAY ONWARD, WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AREAWIDE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACNW INTRODUCES DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PWATS IN THE 0.7-1.0" RANGE. AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGING PATTERN INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY WEEKEND, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH LOWER
FLASH FLOODING RISK AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
KSLC...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TERRAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO
THE VALLEY WITH ~40% CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-
03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE BRIEF TODAY WITH A SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTH AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
TERRAIN OF THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 21Z, PEAKING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z, AND THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CREATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 348 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT UT
INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE STATE, HELPING MODERATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN PARALLEL TO I-15 EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 1200-1400. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN / DIURNAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCED WINDS AND GUSTS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ107>114-116>131.
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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