658
FXUS65 KSLC 221845
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1245 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
UT AND SOUTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.
- FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THURSDAY ON, THOUGH
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES STATEWIDE.
- HEAT CONCERNS RETURN TO UT STARTING THIS FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF UT TODAY AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION. CLOUD COVER AND LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
WEAKER STORMS CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND AROUND 1300-1500, ENABLING
THE ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH CAPE GENERAL RANGING
FROM 1000-1500J/KG STATEWIDE, THOUGH CAPE ~2000J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST UT. WITH PWATS GENERALLY 1.2" OR GREATER IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF UT (0.8-1.0" PWAT ANOMALIES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS NORTHERN UT TODAY AS WELL),
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE EFFICIENT AND HEAVY
RAINMAKERS. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ANCHORED TO
TERRAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR
POPULATED AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN UT I-15 CORRIDOR REGARDING IF
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OR NOT.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR STORMS REMAINING OVER
PROBLEMATIC TERRAIN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, SUCH AS BURN
SCARS.
THE WASATCH BACK, BEAR RIVER RANGE, NORTHERN UINTAS, AND PERHAPS
UINTA COUNTY, WY MAY SEE PARTICULARLY INTENSE RAIN RATES AT TIMES
TODAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN UT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNAL FOR RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY
IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR AT TIMES. WHILE THESE AREAS ARE HISTORICALLY LESS
CONCERNING THAN SOUTHERN UT REGARDING FLASH FLOODING CONCERN, THESE
RATES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR THESE AREAS AND JUSTIFIED THESE AREAS
BEING INCLUDED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THURSDAY ON, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE
AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD, DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND FAVOR
TERRAIN AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. IT APPEARS THAT
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THE MONSOONAL PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT LESS INTENSE THAN THIS WEEK.
LASTLY, HEAT CONCERNS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD "MAJOR" HEATRISK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT STARTING FRIDAY, EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL UT ON
SATURDAY. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
KSLC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT BY 20Z, WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DELAYING UNTIL AROUND 2030Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WASATCH AFTER 20Z, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF ROGUE STORMS COMING INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22-00Z AND 04-06Z (15-20%
CHANCE).THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF ANY NEARBY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING AN EARLIER SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY, OR A PROLONGED NORTHERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 19Z, FIRST
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS.
WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 02Z, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT UT
INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE STATE, HELPING MODERATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS UT
TODAY AS STRONGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN PARALLEL TO I-15 EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AROUND 1200-1500 WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
LIGHTNING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ107>114-116>131.
WY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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