945
FXUS65 KSLC 080443
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1043 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 305 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF UTAH THIS WEEKEND.
THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR PROPER HYDRATION WILL BE MOST
AT RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY. HEAT STRESS
IS CUMULATIVE.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS OUTLOOKED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY, SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT,
PARTICULARLY TO RAIN SENSITIVE BASINS.
- A MONSOONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK,
OFFERING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1011 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
EVENING SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MORE OR LESS CENTERED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, 700MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM. IN FACT, THE EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON SAMPLED A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF APPROXIMATELY 18.35C, WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND MORE OR LESS
AT THE DAILY MAX. IN TURN, IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD 100F READINGS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ASIDE
FROM THE HEAT, MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PIVOTING AROUND THE
RIDGE HAVE YIELDED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH NEAR STATIONARY MOTION, THESE HAVE RESULTED IN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, BUT ALSO WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL A BIT
DRY, SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS WELL. WITH LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING THOUGH, EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THIS WEEKEND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHIFT
APPRECIABLY. FIRST, EXCEPTING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER, FORECAST HIGHS ONLY LOOK TO DECREASE AT MOST A DEGREE OR SO
DAY TO DAY. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAINING VERY MILD,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER, THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
OF HEAT WILL BE AMPLIFIED, AND POSE A RISK TO THOSE WITHOUT
ACCESS TO COOLING OR PROPER HYDRATION. WIDESPREAD EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACCORDINGLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE PRIMARY
CHANGES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT NORTH AND EASTWARD EXPANSION
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
POSING A THREAT OF PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, THE WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST UTAH IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) SATURDAY, WITH THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THEN EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MORE OR LESS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTION, THE
THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST OVER RAIN SENSITIVE BASINS SUCH AS RECENT
BURN SCARS, SLOT CANYONS, TYPICALLY DRY WASHES, AND SLICKROCK
AREAS.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO SEE A MONSOONAL PATTERN
MAINTAINED AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IF ANYTHING ONLY BECOMES
BETTER CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ALLOWING A FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TAP INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. PWAT ANOMALIES
AREAWIDE SIT ROUGHLY AROUND 125-150% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL,
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES PEAKING AROUND 150-175% OF NORMAL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK
AREA HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY (AS FAR AS
THE OUTLOOKS GO IN TIME AT THIS POINT), AND SUSPECT THE AREA WILL
SEE A CONTINUED EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT MORE OR LESS
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL, THIS THREAT WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED AT THOSE RAIN SENSITIVE BASINS, THOUGH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ELSEWHERE MAY STILL POSE LOCALIZED RISKS AT TIME.
IN REGARDS TO TIMING, GENERALLY EXPECT THE DIURNAL CYCLE TO
LARGELY DOMINATE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
THOUGH MORE SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE MAY OFFER AREAS/PERIODS OF HIGH COVERAGE; A DETAIL
THAT IS NOT EASILY RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT. ASIDE FROM THE FLOOD
THREAT, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE FASTER JET FLOW AT AREAS
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE ID BORDER, WHICH MAY OFFER A BIT
MORE SHEAR AND SUPPORT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WOULD ANTICIPATE
THESE PLACES TO SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL. WITH THE INCREASED MONSOONAL
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, OFFERING
SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
AVIATION
KSLC...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY
CAUSE SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR, PARTICULARLY
AROUND SUNRISE/SUNSET.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS FOR ALL REGIONAL
TERMINALS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH,
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND WASATCH
BACK. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERALL, THOUGH LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR VIS ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE/SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1011 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE CENTERED ATOP THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT AROUND THIS RIDGE AND INTO UTAH,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL UTAH. INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK,
THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOMALOUS HEAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ101-
102-104-105-115-120-121.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ103-106-107-
114-116.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ118-119-122-126-127.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ123-124-
128>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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