678
FXUS65 KSLC 101849
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1249 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1044 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF UTAH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SLOT CANYONS, NORMALLY DRY
WASHES, SLICK ROCK AREAS, AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE 10-15 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY. THIS IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.1" ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND
UPWARDS OF 0.9" EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL
BE PRESENT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS INTO AN MCS-ISH
FEATURES, BUT GUIDANCE USUALLY STRUGGLES WITH REPRESENTING THE
DETAILS OF THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL THE DAY OF. WPC ERO SHOWS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF UTAH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THANKS TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING AS WELL AS COOL
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COMPARED TO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON
COUNTY. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTER PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH GREAT BASIN IT WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK AS STORMS
BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED IN NATURE.
AVIATION
KSLC...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 19Z,
REMAINING GENERALLY BREEZY EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-
04Z. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR VIS COULD BE ACHIEVED UNDER
A CELL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR PYROCUMULONIMBUS
DEVELOPMENT ON THE ROCKY CANYON FIRE NEAR EAST CANYON RESERVOIR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON FIRE ACTIVITY REMAINING
HIGH. OTHERWISE, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS FOR
NEARLY ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR
MOST TERMINALS, THOUGH MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY UNDER HEAVY
RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
THE MONSOON PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST HELPS TO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DECREASE BY 10-15 DEGREES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT DETAILS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON WHERE AND WHEN
UNTIL THE DAY OF ANY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AS THESE FEATURES ARE USUALLY
BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE DAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING PROBABILITIES. IT WILL ALSO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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