897
FXUS65 KSLC 111808
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1208 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1036 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SLOT CANYONS, NORMALLY DRY
WASHES, SLICK ROCK AREAS, AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE 10-15 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1036 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH, SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHERN NV CONTINUE TO FACILITATE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.8-1.1 INCHES OF
PWAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY, AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION LOOK TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MODELS
SUGGEST THAT REMNANTS OF THE MCV CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ COULD
POTENTIALLY ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS, THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE TYPICAL
THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA WHICH WILL START SPREADING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA,
WITH PWATS GRADUALLY DECREASING, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO EJECT
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH SOME ADDED SHEAR TO RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS.
MODELS THEN HINT AT THE DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER UTAH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS EC
AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ALTHOUGH THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS
FARTHER EAST WITH HIGHER PWATS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER UTAH.
AVIATION, ISSUED 529 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 529 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026...
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA STARTING MID AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO THE TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE AIRSPACE TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. WITH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE FROM THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO UTAH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AND PERSIST, BUT THE DETAILS OF WHEN AND WHERE
WITH THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN UNTIL THE DAY OF.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY THURSDAY THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, BUT RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
EXPAND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH, PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE DIURNAL STORMS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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