461
FXUS65 KSLC 111826
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1226 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS RISK EXPANDS FURTHER NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE 10-15 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INFLUX GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO EXPAND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF UTAH AND SW
WYOMING. THE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO
NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOT CANYONS, NORMAL DRY
WASHES, URBAN AREAS, AND RECENT BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE CAVEAT
WITH THIS WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT LINGERING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, SUCH
AS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, BUT MODELS STRUGGLE TO CAPTURE
THESE FEATURES ACCURATELY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FORCING INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND DOWN 10-15 DEGREES WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE RE-POSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, IN SOME FORM, THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL A TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 19-20Z. THERE IS A 25-35% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SALT LAKE VALLEY BETWEEN 20Z-06Z,
AND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT REDUCTIONS IN VIS FROM HEAVY RAIN AND/OR BLOWING DUST IF A
THUNDERSTORM CORE PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVING OFF OF THE TERRAIN AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS INSIST THAT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND SW WYOMING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO UTAH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AND PERSIST, BUT THE DETAILS OF WHEN AND WHERE
WITH THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN UNTIL THE DAY OF.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY THURSDAY THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, BUT RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
EXPAND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN UTAH, PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS. BY THE WEEKEND, A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE DIURNAL STORMS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...ADESMET
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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