604
FXUS65 KSLC 142340
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
540 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST
UTAH AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING RECENT BURN
SCARS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES, SLOT CANYONS, AND SLICK ROCK
AREAS.
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MOSTLY LOWER-ELEVATION PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1053 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SSW TO NNE ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST UTAH AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS IS BRINGING A NUMBER OF
MORNING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO VARIOUS SENSITIVE AREAS INCLUDING
ZION NATIONAL PARK. THIS MCS IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL UTAH WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS, ALONG WITH 25KTS OF BULK SHEAR (CLOSER TO 50KTS NEAR
THE JET NOSE ITSELF). COMBINED WITH AN EXISTING POOL OF PWATS
NEAR AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, THIS
MCS IS EFFICIENTLY WRINGING OUT RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST UTAH AND THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (THE LATTER LARGELY DUE TO RECENT BURN
SCARS).
MOVING FORWARD THROUGH TODAY, LOOKING AT CAMS THE RAP/HRRR HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MCS LOCATION AND INTENSITY; THEY ADVANCE IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF
I-15 THROUGH AT LEAST MILLARD COUNTY, THUS SUGGESTING A THREAT TO
THE COTTONWOOD AND WIDEMOUTH 2 BURN SCARS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
RECENT BURN SCARS. BEYOND CENTRAL UTAH, CAM CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN
IN TERMS OF HOW WELL IT HOLDS TOGETHER TRACKING FARTHER NORTH.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THE RAP HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LOCATION AND IS DEPICTING THE MCS HOLDING TOGETHER ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT / WASATCH BACK AND UP TO THE UT/ID
BORDER, REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT AROUND 2-4PM
AND UP TO THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY BY 6PM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MCS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S JET/SHORTWAVE, MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE.
PWATS DROPPING CLOSER TO A HALF INCH. CAMS DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE TYPICAL TERRAIN-FOCUSED AREAS, THOUGH
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE IS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TENDS TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS EXPECT, SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN. IN THAT CASE, WOULD EXPECT
INITIATION IN ANY AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW, DEPENDING ON
THE DEGREE OF OVERALL SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND 5 DEGREES AS HEIGHTS BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THEN SETS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. ANY DRYING/WARMING CAN BRING A RETURN OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BRING ELEVATED WINDS AS WELL. AS OF NOW THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY, SO THE CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS ISOLATED OVER POCKETS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH.
THE NEXT ROUND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM
LOOKING AT VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. THE GENERAL THEME IS MANY MEMBERS
SLOWLY BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LAKE NEXT WEEK
AND ON THROUGH AUGUST, THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE EXISTS A 30% CHANCE THAT ONE MORE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL
ABOUT 02-03Z, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 KTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL DROPPING CIGS TO MVFR. ASIDE FROM ANY ERRATIC STORM
OUTFLOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THROUGH THE EVENING,
THOUGH A 30% CHANCE OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS TO THE
NORTH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06-09Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WANE AROUND SUNSET, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PERSISTING AT SGU INTO LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1147 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN STORE TODAY AS THIS MONSOON SURGE COMES TO AN END BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH UTAH TRANSITIONING
TO A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST VALLEY AND LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH LEVELS,
THOUGH DRYING AS WELL.
A SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE NORTH MAY BUMP WINDS ENOUGH ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN, THIS THREAT IS MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST HAS TRENDED MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT WEEK, OTHER THAN AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ116-117-122>129.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...VAN CLEAVE
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...VAN CLEAVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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