362
FXUS65 KSLC 150443
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1043 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1014 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1014 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF MONSOON MOISTURE DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. THESE WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN
DEVELOPING.
A RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOWER
PWATS SIGNALING THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST WEEK
THERE REMAINS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL
HELP TO INITIATE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS PRIMARILY ACROSS TERRAIN, BUT EVEN THIS REMAINS <20% CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM THIS
WEEKEND, BUT STILL REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THE MOST NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PNW AND UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS US FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE FURTHEST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A 598DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE POSITIONING OF THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH
SOME GUIDANCE HAVE THIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND OTHERS
HAVING IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS WILL
DICTATE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA. BUT
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...KSLC
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE
KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 0600-0615Z, BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO 15KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND
5KFT AGL WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY, CLEARING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NORTH WINDS RESUME AROUND 19-20Z ON SATURDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WASATCH FRONT THROUGH AROUND 07Z,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM ABOUT KBMC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UTAH/ SALT LAKE COUNTY LINE. ELSEWHERE, TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CELLS
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1147 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN STORE TODAY AS THIS MONSOON SURGE COMES TO AN END BY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH UTAH TRANSITIONING
TO A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST VALLEY AND LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH LEVELS,
THOUGH DRYING AS WELL.
A SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE NORTH MAY BUMP WINDS ENOUGH ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN, THIS THREAT IS MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST HAS TRENDED MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT WEEK, OTHER THAN AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ116-117-122>129.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...VAN CLEAVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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