762
FXUS65 KSLC 150800
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
200 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1014 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF MONSOON MOISTURE DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE IDAHO
BORDER CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. THESE WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN
DEVELOPING.
A RIDGE WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOWER
PWATS SIGNALING THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST WEEK
THERE REMAINS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL
HELP TO INITIATE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS PRIMARILY ACROSS TERRAIN, BUT EVEN THIS REMAINS <20% CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM THIS
WEEKEND, BUT STILL REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THE MOST NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PNW AND UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS US FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE WAVE TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE FURTHEST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH A 598DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE POSITIONING OF THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH
SOME GUIDANCE HAVE THIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND OTHERS
HAVING IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS WILL
DICTATE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA. BUT
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1043 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
BETWEEN 0600-0615Z, BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO 15KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AROUND 08Z BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT AGL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY, CLEARING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. NORTH WINDS RESUME AROUND 19-20Z ON SATURDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WASATCH FRONT THROUGH AROUND 07Z,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM ABOUT KBMC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
UTAH/ SALT LAKE COUNTY LINE. ELSEWHERE, TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CELLS
CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO
DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS, REACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE VALLEYS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS...WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/MAHAN/WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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