231
FXUS65 KSLC 151839
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH, THOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOWER THAN PRIOR DAYS.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION UNDER
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN QUIETER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. STILL, RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER, WITH DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING STILL IN THE 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS TRENDS DRIER, BUT A FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL RATING OF POSSIBLE IS STILL IN PLACE TODAY FOR ZION AND
SNOW CANYON GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THIS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
WHILE A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL STILL BE THE MAIN
LARGE-SCALE FEATURE IN OUR FORECAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD ACT
TO ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRAW MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, WHICH COULD BRING BACK MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY (BUT LIKELY THURSDAY OR LATER). WITH STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 19-20Z, WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 03-04Z. VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER QUIET SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THE TERMINAL TODAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH, WITH A 30% CHANCE OR LESS OF IMPACTING NEARBY TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 200 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO DECREASE THROUGH
MIDWEEK ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS, REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
VALLEYS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF GUSTY
WINDS...WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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