317
FXUS65 KSLC 160900
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
300 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1016 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE (~20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1016 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE PRIOR TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO PLACE BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE
COMING DAYS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (~20-30% CHANCE) WITH A FEW (~5% CHANCE) STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK
INTO THE 90S TOMORROW WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
MONTANA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT
WEAKER WITH STORM CHANCES LOWER COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS. WINDS
ARE NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN <30 MPH FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE LOCALLY CRITICAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN THAT RH WILL ALSO STAY >15% ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THE MONSOON PATTERN STARTS TO REDEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS PWAT ANOMALIES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH WHICH IS LINE WITH THE 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1016 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 1016 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026...
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z, WITH
A 30% CHANCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AROUND 20Z OR LATER. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OVER/NEAR THE TERMINAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH, IF IT OCCURS COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT
AREA TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL HUMIDITIES AS
EARLY AS TODAY ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE REGION. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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