911
FXUS65 KSLC 161926
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
126 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES.
- THE NEXT MONSOON SURGE IS INCREASING IN PROBABILITY TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
LARGELY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAIN ON THE UPSTREAM
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
US, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME. A BIT OF LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH THESE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
UNIMPACTFUL.
THE ONLY INTERESTING LARGE-SCALE FEATURE EARLY THIS WEEK IS A
GRAZING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STATEWIDE WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH 700-MB WINDS ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND
20KTS AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH WEAK LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SOME SUBTLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS RIDGE. MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KSLC...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY 17Z-19Z, AND
FINALLY NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
(10-30%) THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FIRE OFF THE OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS
AND DRIFT INTO THE VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 3Z
AND 5Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS WILL
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH OF KSLC TO KLGU THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
UTAH INTO UINTA COUNTY, WY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY HOTTER AND DRIER
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS REMAINS NEAR ZERO. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH MOST HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING MINIMUM RH IN THE 25-40% RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR WIND AND RH, PRIMARILY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE RH IS LOWER.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MONSOON PUSH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
INCREASING RH, WETTING RAIN CHANCES, AND LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...VAN CLEAVE
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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