067
FXUS65 KSLC 170001
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
601 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES.
- THE NEXT MONSOON SURGE IS INCREASING IN PROBABILITY TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
LARGELY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAIN ON THE UPSTREAM
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
US, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME. A BIT OF LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BOTH
TODAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH THESE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
UNIMPACTFUL.
THE ONLY INTERESTING LARGE-SCALE FEATURE EARLY THIS WEEK IS A
GRAZING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STATEWIDE WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH 700-MB WINDS ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND
20KTS AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH WEAK LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SOME SUBTLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS RIDGE. MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 02-03Z, BUT MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES. EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 02-04Z. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TOMORROW BETWEEN 19-21Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOME NORTHERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS
ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 126 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY HOTTER AND DRIER
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS REMAINS NEAR ZERO. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH MOST HIGHER
TERRAIN SEEING MINIMUM RH IN THE 25-40% RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR WIND AND RH, PRIMARILY
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE RH IS LOWER.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRIDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MONSOON PUSH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
INCREASING RH, WETTING RAIN CHANCES, AND LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page