032
FXUS65 KSLC 191042
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
442 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS DRY.
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE IN THE WEEK, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AZ TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN AN DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
UT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES OF PWAT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS CO/NM BY
FRIDAY, AND A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ADDED DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA, THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BEGINS AS SOON AS THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN UTAH
AND WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS A 25-30%
CHANCE OF SLC REACHING 100F THURSDAY-FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE
WARM BIAS COMMONLY EXHIBITED LOCALLY BY THE NBM IN THE WARM
SEASON, SUSPECT THAT THE CHANCE OF REACHING 100F IS MUCH HIGHER,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
THIS THINKING. HEATRISK ALSO FALLS INTO THE RED (MAJOR) CATEGORY
IN MANY VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY, BUT THE INCREASED THREAT OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL BE MITIGATED DUE TO OVERALL ACCLIMATION
DURING THE SEASON.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026...
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT; ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT
DIRECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE TO GO BACK TO NORTHERLY AROUND 4-7KTS
BETWEEN 06-11Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN UTAH WITH CHANCES FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO FAVOR CONTINUED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, REMAINING MOSTLY DRY WITH THREATS FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY INCREASING RH VALUES AREAWIDE IN
ADDITION TO WETTER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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