198
FXUS65 KSLC 191854
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1254 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS DRY.
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE IN THE WEEK, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AZ TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN AN DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
UT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES OF PWAT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL AND MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS CO/NM BY
FRIDAY, AND A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ADDED DYNAMICS FROM A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA, THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BEGINS AS SOON AS THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN UTAH
AND WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS A 25-30%
CHANCE OF SLC REACHING 100F THURSDAY-FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE
WARM BIAS COMMONLY EXHIBITED LOCALLY BY THE NBM IN THE WARM
SEASON, SUSPECT THAT THE CHANCE OF REACHING 100F IS MUCH HIGHER,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
THIS THINKING. HEATRISK ALSO FALLS INTO THE RED (MAJOR) CATEGORY
IN MANY VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY, BUT THE INCREASED THREAT OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL BE MITIGATED DUE TO OVERALL ACCLIMATION
DURING THE SEASON.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1138 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KSLC...GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NEXT WIND SHIFT CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND 04-05Z WITH SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
TREND OF WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS UTAH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MANY LOWER LYING VALLEY AREAS REACHING BACK INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. ALONGSIDE THE HEAT, FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
UTAH'S WEST DESERT ON THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITY FALLING BY ANOTHER 5
PERCENT. AS SUCH, ISOLATED POCKETS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST DESERT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH
THE HEAT AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, KEEPING SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HIGH-BASED MOISTURE WILL MAKE A SUBTLE
INCREASE ON THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN. STILL, COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS UTAH. WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAINS FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL GREATLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS, AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WHILE RH VALUES IN THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS
OF WESTERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE
TEENS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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