743
FXUS65 KSLC 211910
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
110 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1018 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH
FRIDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S PROVIDING
LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1018 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. DESPITE SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE STILL
PREDOMINATELY IN THE 0.7 TO 0.8 INCH RANGE, MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH, INCLUDING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM ARIZONA SHOULD
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE HOT ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST VALLEYS SEEING TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RELIEF, WITH HIGHS IN THIS AREA TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY. GOING HEAT ADVISORY COVERS THIS THREAT WELL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT IS DEVELOPING WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE
TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL
FORCING MECHANISMS INITIALLY, SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AT FIRST. SEEING EVIDENCE THAT SOME MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM ARIZONA WILL EJECT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH.
ONCE THE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES, CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
DECREASES NOTICEABLY, WITH A GOOD PORTION OF GUIDANCE SHOWING A
DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES OVER ARIZONA.
AVIATION, ISSUED 528 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT DURING INSTANCES OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NEARBY STORMS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST AND EASTERN UTAH WHILE
SOUTHWEST UTAH SEES AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY WITH STORMS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH, HOWEVER, WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE NORTH
OF THE US-50/ I-70 CORRIDOR. THE BIGGER THREAT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH WILL BE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY BRING SHORT-LIVED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
IMPROVEMENT TO AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW
DRYING TREND. THAT SAID, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
STILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES THROUGHOUT UTAH
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
SHARPLY DECREASE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AREAWIDE EACH
DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONGSIDE A DRYING SURFACE
HUMIDITY TREND. BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY AT, OR BELOW, 15
PERCENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ101>106.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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