820
FXUS65 KSLC 040449
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1049 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 244 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON FRIDAY
WITH SIMILAR WIND GUST MAGNITUDES TO TODAY (30-45 MPH) ALTHOUGH A
BIT MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS. 700 MB WINDS
MAXIMIZE ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO PREVENT THE WINDS FROM GUSTING HIGHER AND
FOR AS LONG. EVEN THOUGH A FEW AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE MARIE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AS A TROUGH IN
THE PNW ROTATES A JET MAX INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET WILL LEAD TO UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR WHILE BEHIND IT WILL BE DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. IF IT ARRIVES FASTER THAN THE MOISTURE THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER EAST. THIS IS EVIDENT AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS PWATS FOR KSLC RANGE FROM 0.7" TO 1.00" ON
SUNDAY. QPF TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT AS THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE LIKE AN EARLY TO MID MORNING EVENT WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO UTAH AND SW WYOMING FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE COULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE AS MARIE DECAYS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PNW TROUGH.
AVIATION
KSLC...A GENERALLY DRY AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR, AND WINDS WILL AT TIMES BE MODESTLY GUSTY
AROUND 20-30 KTS. IF/WHEN SURFACE WINDS RELAX WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND (SPEED) SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30 KTS IN
ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL MAY DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS RETURN OR
BECOME ENHANCED FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PERSIST, MAINTAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH MODEST
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE SOME TERMINALS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING
WIND GUSTS YIELDING INSTEAD SOME LOW LEVEL WIND (SPEED) SHEAR UP TO
30 KTS OR SO IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. GUSTS WILL TEND TO INCREASE
FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY, DECREASING WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 244 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESPECIALLY ELEVATED INTO
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-45 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF WESTERN UTAH WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15
PERCENT THROUGH THIS EVENING; WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS
ALREADY IN PLACE, AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. DESPITE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED TODAY, IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS THE RISK MODERATED. WHILE WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH IMPROVING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY, A LACK OF OUTSIDE
FORCING WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE WITH A
CONCURRENT PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH ESPECIALLY FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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