343
FXUS65 KSLC 040916
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
316 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 244 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1049 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON FRIDAY
WITH SIMILAR WIND GUST MAGNITUDES TO TODAY (30-45 MPH) ALTHOUGH A
BIT MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS. 700 MB WINDS
MAXIMIZE ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO PREVENT THE WINDS FROM GUSTING HIGHER AND
FOR AS LONG. EVEN THOUGH A FEW AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE MARIE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AS A TROUGH IN
THE PNW ROTATES A JET MAX INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET WILL LEAD TO UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR WHILE BEHIND IT WILL BE DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. IF IT ARRIVES FASTER THAN THE MOISTURE THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER EAST. THIS IS EVIDENT AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS PWATS FOR KSLC RANGE FROM 0.7" TO 1.00" ON
SUNDAY. QPF TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT AS THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE LIKE AN EARLY TO MID MORNING EVENT WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO UTAH AND SW WYOMING FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE COULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE AS MARIE DECAYS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THE WEST
THANKS TO THE PNW TROUGH.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1049 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
KSLC...A GENERALLY DRY AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR, AND WINDS WILL AT TIMES BE MODESTLY GUSTY
AROUND 20-30 KTS. IF/WHEN SURFACE WINDS RELAX WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND (SPEED) SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30 KTS IN
ROUGHLY THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL MAY DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS RETURN OR
BECOME ENHANCED FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PERSIST, MAINTAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH MODEST
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE SOME TERMINALS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING
WIND GUSTS YIELDING INSTEAD SOME LOW LEVEL WIND (SPEED) SHEAR UP TO
30 KTS OR SO IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. GUSTS WILL TEND TO INCREASE
FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY, DECREASING WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL MAKE SUBTLE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY ALONGSIDE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN AN
INCREASING TREND TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AREAS IN UTAH'S WEST DESERT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 10-15
PERCENT. PAIRED WITH CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, CRITICAL
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, A MAJORITY OF OTHER REGIONS (E.G.
CENTRAL/NORTHER/SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, EASTERN VALLEYS, NORTHWEST
UTAH) SEEING THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER,
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF MOISTURE. FOR
SATURDAY, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. THUS, WESTERN UTAH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-TEENS. WHILE THE
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WILL BE LOWER, BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PEAK SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FOR EASTERN UTAH,
WINDS WILL BE UP TO 5-10 MPH SLOWER FOR BOTH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
GUSTS. IN SHORT, ONE FINAL DAY OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN UTAH.
MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD, BUT QUICK MOVING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
QUICKLY VACATE UTAH, INTRODUCING TEMPORARY DRYING BUT STILL
FAVORING ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE SURGE MID-WEEK, KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT
MODERATED FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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