762
FXUS65 KSLC 051251
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
651 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1038 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS
WEST OF I-15.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO UTAH SUNDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING QPF
TOTALS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS ~45% CHANCE THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1038 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS PRODUCING A NOTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WHILE AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALSO
COINCIDING WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS KEPT WINDS GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAX WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH
(BRIEFLY). THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED AND SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY WHILE PULLING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.
THIS MOISTURE IS SLATED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING IN TANDEM WITH
A 110+ KT JET. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS UTAH POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET LEADING TO UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A NARROW SWATCH OF RELATIVELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION, HOWEVER WITH MUCH
DRIER SOLUTIONS. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM
ALMOST NOTHING TO UPWARDS OF 1.00"+ OF PRECIPITATION FROM A BAND
THAT SETS UP FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH UP THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUSED CONVECTION WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PINPOINTING NORTHWESTERN UTAH AS THE FAVORED
LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS
DENOTED AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THAT,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOME DIVERGENT WITH A 45/55 SPLIT OF A WET/DRY
PATTERN. THE 45% OF MEMBERS PHASE THE REMAINING MOISTURE OF
HURRICANE MARIE INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE PNW WITH A TRAJECTORY
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OTHER 55% OF MEMBERS PHASE THIS MOISTURE
INTO A LOW OFF THE PNW COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER SOLUTION
FOR THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
KSLC...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER AROUND 15Z, WITH PEAK SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOUTH FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY, WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING GUSTS PICK UP AFTER AROUND 15-16Z. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF UTAH SEE SPEEDS ABOUT 5-8KTS SLOWER.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
LOCALIZED REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST DESERT DUE TO
BLOWING DUST.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 326 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MAINTAINS A
DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WESTERN
UTAH WILL SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY AT, OR BELOW, 15% COMBINES WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN EASTERN UTAH, WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUMS FALLING BY UPWARDS OF 5%
ALONGSIDE A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS.
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS UTAH FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY, EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN RUNNING
PARALLEL WITH I-15, WHERE THE LOWER LYING TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
EASTERN UTAH WILL SEE OVERALL LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
THOUGH AREAS IN WESTERN AND EASTERN UTAH MAY NOT SEE RAINFALL, THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY, WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY EXISTS THE REGION ON MONDAY, THOUGH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHIFTING WINDS (WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY) AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER, ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE IS POISED TO PUSH INTO UTAH DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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