215
FXUS65 KSLC 051934
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
134 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1038 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS
WEST OF I-15.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO UTAH SUNDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING QPF
TOTALS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS ~45% CHANCE THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1038 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS PRODUCING A NOTABLE
THERMAL GRADIENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WHILE AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. THIS THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALSO
COINCIDING WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS KEPT WINDS GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAX WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH
(BRIEFLY). THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED AND SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY WHILE PULLING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.
THIS MOISTURE IS SLATED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING IN TANDEM WITH
A 110+ KT JET. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS UTAH POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET LEADING TO UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A NARROW SWATCH OF RELATIVELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION, HOWEVER WITH MUCH
DRIER SOLUTIONS. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM
ALMOST NOTHING TO UPWARDS OF 1.00"+ OF PRECIPITATION FROM A BAND
THAT SETS UP FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH UP THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUSED CONVECTION WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PINPOINTING NORTHWESTERN UTAH AS THE FAVORED
LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION. A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS
DENOTED AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THAT,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOME DIVERGENT WITH A 45/55 SPLIT OF A WET/DRY
PATTERN. THE 45% OF MEMBERS PHASE THE REMAINING MOISTURE OF
HURRICANE MARIE INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE PNW WITH A TRAJECTORY
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE OTHER 55% OF MEMBERS PHASE THIS MOISTURE
INTO A LOW OFF THE PNW COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER SOLUTION
FOR THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION, ISSUED 651 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KSLC...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER AROUND 15Z, WITH PEAK SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOUTH FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY, WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING GUSTS PICK UP AFTER AROUND 15-16Z. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF UTAH SEE SPEEDS ABOUT 5-8KTS SLOWER.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
LOCALIZED REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST DESERT DUE TO
BLOWING DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WEST DESERT AND GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT WHERE
HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DROPPING BELOW 15%. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-15 WILL RANGE
FROM 30-45MPH EACH AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TO UTAH WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE, THOUGH
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH, THOUGH LOWER ELEVATION AREAS FURTHER EAST MAY SEE HIGHER
ISOLATED TOTALS FROM STRONGER STORMS. FOR LOWER LYING AREAS WEST OF
I-15, GENERALLY A TRACE OR LESS OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK ACROSS AT
LEAST SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ113-114-116>120-122-124>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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