123
FXUS65 KSLC 070347
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
947 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO AROUND CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO AREAS FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INCREASING DAY TO DAY.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED. A
BROAD UPPER LOW IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACNW, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH NEARBY AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH. A STREAM OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITHIN
THE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND
OF PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A LACK OF DESTABILIZATION HAS
LARGELY KEPT THESE SHOWERS SHALLOW AND MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE,
AND OBSERVED RAIN RATES HAVE STRUGGLED TO PUSH MUCH PAST 0.10" PER
HOUR OR SO, EVEN WITH PWATS AROUND 0.8" TO 1.2". A FEW SLIGHTLY
MORE ORGANIZED CELLS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH AND
PRODUCE SOME INSTANCES OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS, BUT OTHERWISE THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER LOCALLY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE MORE MARKED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THOUGH, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO LARGELY DIMINISH ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL UTAH BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING AND
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT, BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
IT. ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RUN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE IN COMPARISON TO SUNDAY
GIVEN MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER, BUT EVEN THEN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
MOVING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, MODELS FAVOR A LARGELY DRY AND
ZONAL FLOW BEING MAINTAINED OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK UPWARDS IN TURN. IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR FORECAST
CYCLES, ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE TRENDING AWAY FROM MUCH OF A MOISTURE
RETURN, AND AS SUCH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THERE IS
SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE
AREA AROUND THE WEEKEND, BUT MINIMAL CONSENSUS ON THE
DEPTH/STRENGTH OF ANY SUCH FEATURE, OR WHAT SORT OF MOISTURE WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO INTERACT WITH. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS
REMAINS LOW THOUGH, SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER ROUGHLY 12Z BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERALL DRY, WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER INTO MONDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AIRSPACE WILL SEE A SWITCH TO LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MID MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
STRATIFORM RAIN CURRENTLY ALONG THE SPINE OF UTAH WILL TAPER OFF AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER
FAR NORTHERN UTAH, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
WINDS TO KLGU. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL UTAH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY PUSHING IN
BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY FAVORED TO
RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE IS SOME
MODEL SUPPORT FOR MOISTURE RETURNING WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BY THE
WEEKEND, BE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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