006
FXUS65 KSLC 081126
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 948 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 948 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE LINGERING REMNANT MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM IS YIELDING SOME MODEST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER RESULTED IN WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY, WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAS SEEN COOLER TEMPERATURES COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WHILE A CALMER AND CLEARER NIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NON-IMPACTFUL.
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE COMBINATION OF A
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE
LOCAL FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND THURSDAY.
SLIGHT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ABOUT PERIODS OF SOME CLOUD COVER, BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO SUGGEST APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. EVEN THEN, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN MODELS
TO INCLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW
FOR PASSAGE OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. GENERALLY, MODELS SUGGEST ANY SUCH SYSTEM
WOULD BE MORE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH BRINGS QUESTIONS
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE. EVEN LOOKING AT THE
BROADER ENSEMBLE RANGE FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHERN UTAH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THERE IS A SPREAD OF 700 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF ABOUT 10C, CORRESPONDING TO AN NBM
FORECAST 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE AT
KSLC OF 66F TO 84F. THIS SPREAD DECREASES AT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
IN UTAH WHERE CHANCES START TO INCREASE IN A GRAZING TYPE SYSTEM
BRINGING ABOUT A MORE MUTED COOLDOWN. LOOKING AT BROADER
SCENARIOS, AROUND 75% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT LEAST CARRY SOME SORT
OF SYSTEM/FRONT, WITH ONLY 25% BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. OF THOSE BRINGING A SYSTEM, MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY SPLIT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND DEGREE/EXTENT OF A COOLDOWN, AND
IF/HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM IT.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 13Z, THEN SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY AROUND 15Z.
CAN'T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NE WINDS THIS EVENING, PERSISTING
BEYOND THE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY SWITCH, BEFORE ULTIMATELY BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT, DIURNALLY - DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE,
BEFORE A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 251 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
AROUND 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE UINTA BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO UTAH BY FRIDAY, YIELDING A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS POINT, INCLUDING THE
DURATION, LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. FOR NOW, THE MOST LIKELY
TIME RANGE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM, TRENDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL LIKELY
BETTER ADDRESS TIMING/STRENGTH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...ADESMET
FIRE WEATHER...DESMET
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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