956
FXUS65 KSLC 081850
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1250 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 948 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 948 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE LINGERING REMNANT MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM IS YIELDING SOME MODEST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER RESULTED IN WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN SUNDAY, WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HAS SEEN COOLER TEMPERATURES COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WHILE A CALMER AND CLEARER NIGHT WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NON-IMPACTFUL.
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE COMBINATION OF A
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE
LOCAL FORECAST REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL DAY TO
DAY WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
INCREASING TO ABOUT 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND THURSDAY.
SLIGHT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING ABOUT PERIODS OF SOME CLOUD COVER, BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY TO SUGGEST APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. EVEN THEN, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN MODELS
TO INCLUDE MUCH MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW
FOR PASSAGE OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. GENERALLY, MODELS SUGGEST ANY SUCH SYSTEM
WOULD BE MORE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH BRINGS QUESTIONS
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE. EVEN LOOKING AT THE
BROADER ENSEMBLE RANGE FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHERN UTAH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THERE IS A SPREAD OF 700 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF ABOUT 10C, CORRESPONDING TO AN NBM
FORECAST 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE AT
KSLC OF 66F TO 84F. THIS SPREAD DECREASES AT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
IN UTAH WHERE CHANCES START TO INCREASE IN A GRAZING TYPE SYSTEM
BRINGING ABOUT A MORE MUTED COOLDOWN. LOOKING AT BROADER
SCENARIOS, AROUND 75% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT LEAST CARRY SOME SORT
OF SYSTEM/FRONT, WITH ONLY 25% BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. OF THOSE BRINGING A SYSTEM, MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY SPLIT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND DEGREE/EXTENT OF A COOLDOWN, AND
IF/HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM IT.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1159 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 4Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. OCCASIONAL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10-14Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES, WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF KPVU SEEING WIND GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS STARTING 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUBSITING AROUND 4Z THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE
TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. RH WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S
GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE STARTS TO SLOWLY CREEP
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 30-45 MPH EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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