004
FXUS65 KSLC 090846
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 940 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- THERE IS A ~50% CHANCE THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 940 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES, AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A
SERIES OF TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST,
UTAH IS SET IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE THREE FEATURES TUESDAY EVENING.
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEEHIVE STATE WARM AND DRY.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ANY FLOOD THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE LOWER LEVELS ARE ABLE TO REALIZE THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND HOW STRONG ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WITH A ~50% CHANCE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
FALLING AROUND 10-20 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS SUNDAY.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1037 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL OPERATIONAL CONCERNS FORECAST.
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS OF 5KTS OR LESS PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. NORTH WINDS RESUME MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A VAST MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS OF 6KTS OR LESS. THE PRIMARY
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN WHERE WINDS OF UP TO 10-
15KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST THROUGH AROUND 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH POCKETS OF NEAR-CRTITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UINTA BASIN AND SWELL
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 30-45 MPH EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
STATEWIDE BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10-20 DEGREES BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ277.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...DESMET
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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