002
FXUS65 KSLC 092115
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
315 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 121 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- THERE IS A ~50% CHANCE THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 121 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
UINTAS. THIS IS DUE TO OUR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH
AND AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM THAT IS KEEPING US IN AN AREA OF
ZONAL FLOW RESULTING IN WARM DRY DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SWELL THAT TEND TO GET
ENHANCED WINDS IN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY BEFORE OUR PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
BY FRIDAY A TROUGH WILL START DIGGING INTO THE PNW WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
SOME CAMS ARE SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PRECEDES
THE PARENT TROUGH.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ENHANCE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES ~50% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVELS
WINDS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME ENHANCED POST FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS VALLEYS OF
EASTERN UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A REX BLOCK SETTING UP OFF
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD LIKELY KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 121 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KSLC... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING INTO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 4Z. BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TOMORROW,
WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY REGIME FLOW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL TAFS
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KEVW, WHERE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 22
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING AT 19Z THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIVING DOWN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AROUND 4Z.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST AND KEEP THE DRY WARM AIR
IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CREATING LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS START TO
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL HELP TO BRING A LITTLE BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ISOLATED AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH. THERE WON'T BE
MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOW ELEVATION
AREAS. THIS PAIRED WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-45 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
10-20 DEGREES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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