721
FXUS65 KSLC 101120
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
520 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1015 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- THERE IS A ~50% CHANCE THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1015 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COLOCATED WITH A JET MAX WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH THE SUNDAY. THIS REPRESENTS
A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM 24 HOURS
EARLIER.
THIS MEANS THE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH+ MAY SHIFT
LATER, WITH THE GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY OF 45 MPH+ CLOSER TO
6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.
GIVEN THIS IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME AWAY AND THE
CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS IS LESS THAN 15%, NO HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20 DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
KSLC...A WEAK GRAZING SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES AND
INCREASED VFR CLOUD COVER THURSDAY EVENING ON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION INFLUENCE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW A DIURNALLY TYPICAL PATTERN, SHIFTING NW ~18-20Z THURSDAY,
AND BACK SE ~02-04Z FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, A WEAK
GRAZING SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AREAWIDE, TERMINALS ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED TO SEE DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
MAGNITUDES.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 507 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PERSISTS MUCH OF THURSDAY AS
THE AREA REMAINS PLACED IN A DRY AND STABLE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. A
SYSTEM WILL GRAZE BY NORTH OF UTAH ROUGHLY THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
UTAH, ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DEEPEN THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS UTAH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF
UTAH'S WEST DESERT REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO THEN SUPPORT THIS
SYSTEM SLIPPING BY THE REGION, PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH UTAH MOST LIKELY SOME TIME SUNDAY, THOUGH OF NOTE SOME
MODELS HAVE SLOWED MORE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIME
RANGE. MODELS HAVE HOWEVER MAINTAINED CONSENSUS IN THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEING OVERWHELMINGLY DRY, WITH THE BEST LOW END CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO EASTERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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