043
FXUS65 KSLC 140425
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TO START THE
WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK WITH SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUING, AT LEAST FOR
EASTERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO MONTANA THIS EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR A
KENV-KEMM LINE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY SO FAR,
WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF SO OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, UP TO 20F BELOW TODAY'S HIGHS,
AND AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH, EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED, AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE A BIT TO THE EAST, RESULTING IN A BIT MORE LIMITED THREAT
OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS STAYING
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST LOOK A BIT
MURKIER THAN USUAL, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH, PARTICULARLY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH IT MIGHT END UP
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR WESTERN UTAH, PRIMARILY. FOR EASTERN UTAH,
THE DEEP MOISTURE NEVER GOES AWAY, WITH THE AXIS MOST LIKELY
SHIFTING A BIT WESTWARD, BRINGING INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
KSLC...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THESE GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CROSSING
NORTHERN UTAH WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS MONDAY, WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT KCDC AND KSGU.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1240 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS EXIST ACROSS WESTERN UTAH IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, WITH CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FRONT DRAPED
FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE GREAT SALT LAKE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIOR IT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH IN ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
TIME. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
TODAY, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
CURRENTLY THIS MOISTURE IS MOST PREVALENT FROM FWZ 498 NORTHEAST
THROUGH FWZ 489, AND THESE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM. DUE TO
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL UTAH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST
EARLY WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF DISTRICT, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS MID/LATE WEEK. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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