807
FXUS65 KSLC 152331
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
531 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 149 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT OF
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH INCLUDING ZION NATIONAL PARK, CAPITOL REEF NATIONAL
PARK, GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA, THE GREATER GRAND STAIRCASE-
ESCALANTE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA, AND THE LOWER PARIA INCLUDING
BUCKSKIN GULCH AND PARIA CANYON NORTH OF THE ARIZONA BORDER.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4 CONTINUES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 149 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
QUICK DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, THOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN TRENDS IN CAMS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECTING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL OCCUR. A MAJORITY OF CAMS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH NEAR TO AFTER MIDNIGHT, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST
OF I-15.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. DEPENDING ON TRENDS, THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL ZONES IN THE STATE AND/OR EXTENDED INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BY LATER SHIFTS.
AVIATION
KSLC...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, INCLUDING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY, ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS AREA SEEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, OR BRIEF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE MAIN THREAT
MOVES TO APPROXIMATELY NEAR A CEDAR CITY TO EVANSTON LINE, WITH
SIMILAR THREATS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 149 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
AN ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRING AN INCREASED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-15,
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ121-129.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ124-128-130-131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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