082
FXUS65 KSLC 191807
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1207 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1054 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1054 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO
NORTHERN UTAH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND OUT OF
OUR REGION TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH, INCLUDING THE UINTA BASIN,
AS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LINGERS IN THIS AREA. CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONTINUED DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY UNDER A TRANSIENT
RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING, WHILST HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH REMAIN NEAR- NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, INTRODUCING MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF THIS PARENT LOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST UTAH ON MONDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TUESDAY. PWAT VALUES APPEAR TO
BE QUITE MEAGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL BE MORE LIMITED. A MICROBURST THREAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE
FROM THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE.
RIDGING DEVELOPS MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FAVORING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER, WITH ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WESTERN US WITH MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR BKN CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A LATE DIURNAL SHIFT AROUND 04-05Z,
THOUGH WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 09Z BEFORE
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL AIRSPACE TERMINALS, THOUGH KEVW AND KLGU MAY BRIEFLY SEE
MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1150 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LINGERING INSTABILITY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS
WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RH VALUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RH WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.
IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH DAYTIME RH AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE MONDAY, BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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