353
FXUS65 KSLC 200401
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1001 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
- MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW, SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LOCATIONS SAW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH MAXES AVERAGING
10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, THERE WAS MUCH
LESS COOLING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE EXITING
LOW AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS, MAXES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE BY A
FEW DEGREES, RUNNING 5-7F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO COLORADO, WITH THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN
THIS FLOW, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA, WITH PWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8 INCH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE COMING UP WITH THIS PUSH
THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST WEEK, IT WILL STILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AFTER IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS WHILE ONSHORE.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING IT WILL TAKE A
TURN INTO SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT, MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IN A WEAKENED STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THIS
EXTRA INSTABILITY, THE FORECAST FOR COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY IS DEFINITELY TRENDING UPWARD.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FAVORING A CONTINUED
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC EC, SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE USUALLY DAILY
PATTERN OF SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WESTERLY AROUND 16-17Z
AND EVENTUALLY CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 17-18Z. THE
EVENING SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOOKS TO BE 3-5Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF A FEW LOW
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
IMPACTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER UTAH THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OVER NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
WITH ELEVATED RH VALUES, THOUGH THE TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN RELATIVELY HUMIDITY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DECENT
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. THE
RELATIVE MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...VAN CLEAVE
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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