144
FXUS65 KSLC 060022
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
622 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES..
- DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS THAT WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CURB THE WARMING
TREND AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- THEREAFTER, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 957 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING, BUT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE TOPPING OF THE
FEATURE IS WEAKENING IT AND MOVING IT A BIT SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT,
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL STAY DRY AND VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THESE MAXES UP TO
15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WILL CHALLENGE RECORDS IN SOME
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING SALT LAKE CITY.
THE SHORTWAVE IS ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
AROUND MIDNIGHT, MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ACT TO CURB
THE WARMING TREND JUST A BIT, WITH MAXES RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH MAXES STAYING AROUND
10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO
INCREASE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY COLD PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE SUNDAY, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH MUCH
COLDER AIR IN THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS MUCH MORE SPREAD WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE, WHILE ANOTHER
CHUNK KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 18-19Z TOMORROW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW, WITH
KEVW AND KSVR HAVING A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING THESE SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL SHIFTS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1241 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
UTAH TODAY, WITH HIGHS 10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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