092
FXUS65 KSLC 060448
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1048 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES..
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ISOLATED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO WHERE THEY
WERE TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION WITH ~75%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A TROUGH SLIDING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PNW BEFORE PHASING WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE TROPICAL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND TRANSITIONS THE WINDS TO A NORTH AND WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THERE IS STILL ~25% OF THE MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE TRACK
OF THE TROUGH MORE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE WHERE IT DOESN'T PULL IN
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
OF THE 75% OF THE WETTER MEMBERS, A MAJORITY OF THEM KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SPINS ACROSS UTAH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START BETWEEN 11,500-12,000 FEET ELEVATION BEFORE GRADUALLY
DROPPING DOWN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET LOWER IN ELEVATION. MEAN
700MB TEMPS ARE ~1C WITH THE COLDEST SOLUTIONS DOWN TO -9C BY
TUESDAY WHICH COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS, BUT THIS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH THE OUTLIER.
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN WIDESPREAD
QPF AMOUNTS 1-2" WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING 3"+ ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE UINTAS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 20-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
RETURN TO SOUTH AROUND 03Z MONDAY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL SHIFTS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1241 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
UTAH TODAY, WITH HIGHS 10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page