770
FXUS65 KSLC 061005
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES..
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1048 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ISOLATED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO WHERE THEY
WERE TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION WITH ~75%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING A TROUGH SLIDING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PNW BEFORE PHASING WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE TROPICAL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND TRANSITIONS THE WINDS TO A NORTH AND WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THERE IS STILL ~25% OF THE MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE TRACK
OF THE TROUGH MORE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE WHERE IT DOESN'T PULL IN
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
OF THE 75% OF THE WETTER MEMBERS, A MAJORITY OF THEM KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES
CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SPINS ACROSS UTAH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START BETWEEN 11,500-12,000 FEET ELEVATION BEFORE GRADUALLY
DROPPING DOWN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET LOWER IN ELEVATION. MEAN
700MB TEMPS ARE ~1C WITH THE COLDEST SOLUTIONS DOWN TO -9C BY
TUESDAY WHICH COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS, BUT THIS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH THE OUTLIER.
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN WIDESPREAD
QPF AMOUNTS 1-2" WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING 3"+ ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE UINTAS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1048 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 20-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
RETURN TO SOUTH AROUND 03Z MONDAY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL SHIFTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST UTAH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DRY MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH FRIDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD AREAWIDE BEFORE A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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