794
FXUS65 KSLC 070442
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES..
- CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, HOWEVER, LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THE WEEK.
- A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE RACHEL TO BRING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF UTAH AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
- CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF UTAH WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2.5
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS SUCH AS
RECENT BURN SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT AREA SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH
TODAY WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
24-HOURS, BRINGING STABILIZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THAT
SAID, MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVERHEAD. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT PREVAIL OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FLIP AS UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA HELPS TO DISLODGE COLD AIR, FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TROUGH PHASING WITH WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE RACHEL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, ADVECTING THAT MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH. WITH
WIDESPREAD STOUT SYNOPTIC LIFT, THIS MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BRING A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. AT THIS LEAD TIME, THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND THE ONSET TIME OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND WILL SEE A MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY WITH
MORE ROBUST DYNAMICS INTRODUCED BY SUNDAY. AS SUCH, THE THOUGHT IS
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF AREA LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OFF TO
OUR WEST.
WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH, THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH UTAH IN THE FORM OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ADDING SOLID UPLIFT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL (CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING). PREVIOUSLY, MODELS SHOWED POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN SHIFTING TOWARD A CUTOFF LOW
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTS OFF FROM THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY AND SCRAPES BY THE NORTHERN AREA, TAKING ALL THE COLD AIR
WITH IT. THE RESULTING CUTOFF LOW WOULD THEN LOOK TO MAKE MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION (POTENTIALLY SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ABOVE 8,500FT). WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER PULSE
CHECK ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS TO DIAL IN ON
THE SPECIFICS, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION
KSLC...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 03Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT 18Z TOMORROW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING UNTIL 4Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL SEGUE TO AN
INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS A STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM PHASES WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO UTAH. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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