650
FXUS65 KSLC 080001
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
601 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES..
- A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM NOW HURRICANE RACHEL TO BRING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF UTAH AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THE CURRENT TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS THE
CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL TO THE UTAH-ARIZONA
BORDER NEAR ST. GEORGE BY 5 AM PST MONDAY, WITH THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH. THE MAIN IMPACTS
FOR UTAH WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF UTAH WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS SUCH
AS RECENT BURN SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
BETWEEN SUNDAY 12Z AND MONDAY 12Z, WITH THE REMAINDER OF UTAH IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4). THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ARE
ONLY ISSUED THROUGH DAY 5, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
MARGINAL AND/OR SLIGHT RISK BEYOND 12Z MONDAY AS THE FORECAST
PROGRESSES THAT FAR.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 121 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK BRINGS THE
CIRCULATION OF POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL NEAR ST. GEORGE BY
5 AM PST MONDAY, WITH THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TRACK OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH. NOTE THIS WOULD BE A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, NOT A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE. THUS, THE WIND
POTENTIAL IS MUCH MORE LIMITED.
FIRST, LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FORECAST. LOOKING
AT THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM RACHEL WILL COMBINE WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE WEST TO BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF UTAH, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE WEST. BETWEEN THE 07Z AND 13Z CYCLES OF
THE NBM, THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY, SIGNALING THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING "DRY"
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHIFTING TO REPRESENT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION.
THERE IS ALSO A SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT INDICATE A SHALLOW
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH POLAR AND SUB-TROPICAL JET COUPLING TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS, SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. NOW, EVEN WITH MODELING ADVANCES IN 2026, THE LOCATION OF
A MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE SUCH AS THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
RIGHT NOW, THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FORECAST PRECIPITATION
RANGE WOULD BRING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF UTAH AND UINTA COUNTY, WY BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY, SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN UTAH MAY SEE IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. MORE ABOUT THE IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS,
STREAMS, ETC WILL BE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
THERE IS MORE SPREAD ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
INTO THE ROCKIES, WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORING A SLOWER
SYSTEM AND THUS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING BEYOND
TUESDAY...WITH A SUBSET OF THESE MEMBERS INGESTING ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TD TWENTY-E INTO EASTERN UTAH. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS, AS WELL, GIVEN THE AREA WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE
QUITE SATURATED FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE SWITCHING
TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SOUTHEASTERLIES AROUND 3Z THIS EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL RETURN AROUND 19Z TOMORROW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL
REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND A BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 126 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
AFTER A DRY AND WARM PERIOD, A PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL COMBINE WITH LANDFALLING NOW HURRICANE RACHEL TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
AREAS ABOVE 10,000 FEET WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS PACIFIC
SYSTEM AND THE INTEGRATION OF ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A
SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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