443
FXUS65 KSLC 082055
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
255 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE LIFT THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. WIDESPREAD WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION TRACK.
- THERE IS ALSO A WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM,
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ~50% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CIRCULATION GUSTING 50+ MPH AND
~30% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 58+ MPH.
- A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING AND SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 8500-9000 FEET.
DISCUSSION
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN MILD WITH LOW
80S ONCE AGAIN FOR KSLC. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH, PRIMARILY IN THE TERRAIN.
THESE STORMS ARE GENERALLY WEAK WITH HIGH BASES AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL FIZZLE OUT AFTER SUNSET AS THEY LOSE
THEIR DIURNAL FORCING. TOMORROW WILL SEE SOME MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP SIMILAR TO TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST STARTS TO GRADUALLY
MOVE CLOSER. WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON SATURDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST DESERT WHERE THERE IS ~50% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH AND ~25% CHANCE OF GUSTS 58+ MPH.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN A FLOODING THREAT AS
WELL AS A SEVERE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST TROPICAL CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY, TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL IS SITUATED ~915 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS STORM BRING RACHEL INTO
THE NORTHERN BAJA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROPICAL STORM. THIS TRACK
THEN CONTINUES INTO THE MOJAVE BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO MOVE INTO THE UTAH,
BUT THE MAIN EVENT HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF RACHEL MOVE INTO UTAH. THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE MEAN TRACK OF THIS CIRCULATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRAVERSING INTO
NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE TRACK OF THIS CIRCULATION
WILL BE PIVOTAL REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST. GENERALLY,
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TRACK WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN, AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE A
SEVERE COMPONENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES THROUGH AND DISCREET CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST ROTATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADOS.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM RACHEL ARE BETWEEN 1-3" WITH SOME
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY SOUTHERLY FACING MOUNTAIN ASPECTS OF 3"+.
REMNANTS FROM RACHEL WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, BUT
THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERLY FACING
MOUNTAIN ASPECTS, BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MANY AREA WATERWAYS INCLUDING STREAMS, RIVERS, NORMALLY
DRY WASHES, CREEKS, AND SLOT CANYONS TO HAVE RISING, FAST FLOWS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT BRING ANY RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS THE FINE DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE CONFIDENT. THOSE WITH ACTIVITIES
NEAR RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS AND RECENT BURN SCARS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SUNDAY ONWARD THAT INCLUDE ANY TRAVEL NEAR WATERWAYS
ACROSS UTAH SHOULD CONSIDER ALTERNATE PLANS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BUT
THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER, BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVE A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH MORE SENSITIVE TO
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION
KSLC...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT THE TYPICAL SWITCH FROM NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY, THERE IS AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON,
OR EVEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ALIGN WITH THE WINDS ALOFT. WHILE THERE IS NOT A HIGH
ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A PROB 30 GROUP IN THE TAF, A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 1800UTC.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND A BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OVER TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIN RH IN THE MID TO LOW
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN UTAH THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY MOVES CLOSER.
TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE POST-TROPICAL CIRCULATION
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS CIRCULATION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...CHURCH
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
HYDROLOGY...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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