286
FXUS65 KSLC 101949
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
149 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM RACHEL TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH A
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1-3"
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 4+" ACROSS LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH, THE BOOK CLIFFS, AND
LOCATIONS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE BEAR RIVER RANGE.
- A WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS
TO TAKE ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST UTAH VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS THAT DO WELL IN
NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST FLOW RECEIVING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
0.25-0.5"/HOUR. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. GUSTS IN THE 40S AND A FEW ISOLATED 50S
ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
RACHEL IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH AN ANTICIPATED LANDFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NHC HAS
NOTED THAT RACHEL HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WHICH HAS SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE
EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA. NOW THAT TRACK IS MORE
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK, BUT REGARDLESS THE
IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN THE SAME: WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVE IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING
TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS. AREAS ALONG NORTHERLY
FACING ASPECTS THAT TEND TO DO POORLY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BE
SHADOWED A BIT, SUCH AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY
AND CEDAR CITY. THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN THE CAMS, BUT THE GLOBALS
STRUGGLE DEPICTING THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. ADDITIONALLY, A
FAVORABLE SHEAR SIGNATURE AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HELP FUEL
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND EASTERN HALF OF UTAH. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4"+ ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. THIS
AMOUNT IS JUST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH MAY ACTUALLY SEE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THE CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO ~7500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH
SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW RECEIVING OVER
15". SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UPWARDS OF 30" OF SNOW AT
THE TOP OF THE COTTONWOODS WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE, BUT A
STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW AND A WARM
LAKE THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD MAKE FOR AN
OVERPERFORMING EVENT.
AVIATION
KSLC... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS
EXPECTED BEFORE NIGHTFALL, THEN INCREASING TO 30-35KTS. THERE IS
AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/ OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 22Z. THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06-07Z WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND
LOWERING CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION TODAY, WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UTAH (OUTSIDE
OF BOX ELDER COUNTY) AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED AROUND 25-30KTS. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
(SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-50 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. THE STORM WILL PULL IN TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN STRONG AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WILL DECREASE. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101>109-115-116-118-
119-122-126-127.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR UTZ101>112-114-115.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ113-116>131.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ115>117-119-122-125>127.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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