011
FXUS65 KSLC 110022
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
622 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 149 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM RACHEL TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH A
STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1-3"
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 4+" ACROSS LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH, THE BOOK CLIFFS, AND
LOCATIONS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE BEAR RIVER RANGE.
- A WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS
TO TAKE ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST UTAH VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS THAT DO WELL IN
NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST FLOW RECEIVING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 149 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
0.25-0.5"/HOUR. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. GUSTS IN THE 40S AND A FEW ISOLATED 50S
ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN UTAH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
RACHEL IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH AN ANTICIPATED LANDFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NHC HAS
NOTED THAT RACHEL HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WHICH HAS SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE
EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA. NOW THAT TRACK IS MORE
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK, BUT REGARDLESS THE
IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN THE SAME: WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVE IN TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG SOUTHERLY FACING
TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS. AREAS ALONG NORTHERLY
FACING ASPECTS THAT TEND TO DO POORLY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BE
SHADOWED A BIT, SUCH AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY
AND CEDAR CITY. THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN THE CAMS, BUT THE GLOBALS
STRUGGLE DEPICTING THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. ADDITIONALLY, A
FAVORABLE SHEAR SIGNATURE AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HELP FUEL
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND EASTERN HALF OF UTAH. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4"+ ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. THIS
AMOUNT IS JUST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH MAY ACTUALLY SEE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THE CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO ~7500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH
SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW RECEIVING OVER
15". SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING UPWARDS OF 30" OF SNOW AT
THE TOP OF THE COTTONWOODS WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE, BUT A
STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW AND A WARM
LAKE THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD MAKE FOR AN
OVERPERFORMING EVENT.
AVIATION
KSLC...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03-04Z OR
SO. PERSISTENT LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z, THOUGH STRONG
SOUTHERLIES MAY RESULT IN A BIT LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES AND BETTER
VIS IN THE VFR RANGE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW 6000FT AGL
AFTER 09-10Z. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY/SPOTTY IN NATURE
AFTER 18Z, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING (AFTER 02Z) AS 2000FT AGL WINDS APPROACH
45KTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PERSISTENT LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING,
LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
IN MOST AREAS. WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT, THERE IS
STILL A 30-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR VIS WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL OR
MVFR CIGS AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LIGHTER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SWATH OF EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLIES IS LIKELY TO
MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BEGINNING LATE
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT AND MAXIMIZING ACROSS NORTHERN UT BY THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SITES IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE VERY STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45KTS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS INCLUDES
KCDC/KMLF/KBCE MID-DAY, KTVY SUNDAY EVENING, AND PORTIONS OF THE
CACHE VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WIND SWATH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY EVENING (INCLUDING AT
KLGU).
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 149 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-50 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. THE STORM WILL PULL IN TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN STRONG AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WILL DECREASE. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101>109-118.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR UTZ101>112-114-115.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ113-116>131.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-116-119-122-126-
127.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ117-125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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