433
FXUS65 KSLC 110623
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1223 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
CROSS THE AREA. MANY AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RACHEL. ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- RACHEL'S MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW THAT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THERE REMAINS A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING WITH
WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
MOVES ONSHORE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BROUGHT GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH THE AREA NOW IN A RELATIVE
LULL, THOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IN
PLACE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THE RAIN (SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD AS RACHEL'S REMNANTS TRACK NORTHEAST,
REACHING SOUTHWEST UTAH BY MIDDAY BEFORE IT MOSTLY GETS ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. QPF VALUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RACHEL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
IMPRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OR MORE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
PREDICTABLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS, BUT THE MORE STEADY NATURE OF THIS RAIN, AND THAT IT
WILL BE FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION, MAY MAKE THE
IMPACTS EASIER TO MANAGE. STILL, GOING FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR
THIS UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING NORTHWEST
UTAH MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, WITH THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEEING 700MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -3C TO -4C RANGE WITH THE LOW,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8,000 FEET. QPF VALUES
WITH THIS PART OF THE ACTION ALSO LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED WITH RACHEL, WITH MANY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
FORECAST TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF WATER, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD ALSO
BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE, WITH
TUESDAY'S HIGHS EXPECTED TO RUN 15-20F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AFTER ALL THE ACTIVITY, HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSISTENT LIGHT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED AFTER 07Z, THOUGH STRONG SOUTHERLIES MAY RESULT IN A BIT
LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES AND BETTER VIS IN THE VFR RANGE. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW 6000FT AGL AFTER 09-10Z. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERY/SPOTTY IN NATURE AFTER 19Z, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING (AFTER 02Z) AS 2000FT AGL WINDS APPROACH 45KTS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER AT THIS TIME; SURFACE
WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT LATER SUNDAY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PERSISTENT LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS EVENING, LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING IN MOST AREAS. WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS STILL A 30-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR VIS WITHIN
HEAVIER RAINFALL OR MVFR CIGS AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. RAINFALL
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, BECOMING A BIT LIGHTER IN MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLIES IS LIKELY
TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT AND MAXIMIZING ACROSS NORTHERN UT
BY THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SITES IN PARTICULAR MAY SEE VERY STRONG
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS
INCLUDES KCDC/KMLF/KBCE MID-DAY AND KTVY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS WIND SWATH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT KSGU AND KLGU).
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 149 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-50 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. THE STORM WILL PULL IN TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN STRONG AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WILL DECREASE. WE WILL MAINTAIN AN
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ101>109-
115-118-122.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR UTZ101>131.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ116-119-126-127.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ117-125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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