784
FXUS65 KSLC 111304
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
704 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
CROSS THE AREA. MANY AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RACHEL. ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- RACHEL'S MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW THAT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THERE REMAINS A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING WITH
WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
MOVES ONSHORE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BROUGHT GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH THE AREA NOW IN A RELATIVE
LULL, THOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IN
PLACE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THE RAIN (SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD AS RACHEL'S REMNANTS TRACK NORTHEAST,
REACHING SOUTHWEST UTAH BY MIDDAY BEFORE IT MOSTLY GETS ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. QPF VALUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RACHEL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK
IMPRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OR MORE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL
PREDICTABLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS, BUT THE MORE STEADY NATURE OF THIS RAIN, AND THAT IT
WILL BE FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION, MAY MAKE THE
IMPACTS EASIER TO MANAGE. STILL, GOING FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR
THIS UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING NORTHWEST
UTAH MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, WITH THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEEING 700MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -3C TO -4C RANGE WITH THE LOW,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8,000 FEET. QPF VALUES
WITH THIS PART OF THE ACTION ALSO LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED WITH RACHEL, WITH MANY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
FORECAST TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF WATER, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD ALSO
BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE, WITH
TUESDAY'S HIGHS EXPECTED TO RUN 15-20F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AFTER ALL THE ACTIVITY, HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY/SPOTTY IN NATURE AFTER 18Z, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL FILL IN AGAIN FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING (AFTER 02Z) AS 2000FT AGL WINDS APPROACH 45KTS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME;
SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING, GENERALLY IN THE
02-05Z TIMEFRAME.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PERSISTENT LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA,
BECOMING A BIT LIGHTER IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF EVEN
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES IS LIKELY TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT THIS MORNING AND
MAXIMIZING ACROSS NORTHERN UT BY THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SITES IN
PARTICULAR MAY SEE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS WITH
LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THIS INCLUDES KCDC/KMLF/KBCE MID-DAY AND
KTVY SUNDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
WIND SWATH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT KSGU
AND KLGU).
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 139 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND WITH REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA, LEADING
TO HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED, POTENTIALLY STRONG,
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, AN UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
COOLER AIR, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LESS THEN 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ101>131.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ115-122.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ116-117-119-125>127.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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