843
FXUS65 KSLC 112031
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
231 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 225 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH TODAY WITH A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
(LEVELS 1 TO 2 OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF UTAH. ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH, MANY STREAMS, NORMALLY DRY WASHES, SLOT
CANYONS AND RIVERS WILL RUN HIGH FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3+ INCHES IN THE PINE VALLEYS AND NEAR BRIAN
HEAD.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WITH THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM RACHEL. HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
MORNING WILL SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL SEE WINDS PEAK THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD 45 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE
VALLEYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS, SATURATED SOILS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO DOWN
TREES.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- RACHEL'S MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW THAT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 225 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RACHEL'S REMNANT CIRCULATION HAS BECOME HARD TO PINPOINT, AND HAS
EVOLVED MORE INTO AN OPEN WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH AND IS RIDING ALONG A DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE THROUGH NORTHWEST UTAH. THIS AFTERNOON THE REMNANT LOW
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LIKELY CROSSING NEAR THE
GREAT SALT LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE, WHERE 50-65 KNOTS 700 MB
JET IS TRACKING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD
SPREADINGGUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF LARGELY 45-55 MPH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH
STRONG WINDS NEAR RIDGE TOP LEVEL, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WASATCH
MOUNTAINS, AND UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL PEAK GUSTS 60-75 MPH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER RIDGETOP WINDS OF 80+ MPH. IN ADDITION, NORMALLY
DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, LIKE THE NORTH TIPS
OF THE OQUIRRH AND STANSBURY MOUNTAINS ALONG I-80 ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH AS WELL. FOR THIS HAVE
PULLED A WIND ADVISORY NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH
(OUTSIDE OF THE CACHE VALLEY AND EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY), AND A
HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE TOOELE VALLEY (FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED I-80 IMPACTS), AS WELL AS UINTA COUNTY WYOMING
WHERE IT WILL BE EASIER TO MIX THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ON THE DIVIDES EAST OF EVANSTON ALONG I-80.
THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CORNERS OF THE SALT LAKE VALLEY SEE SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH BACK, AND WILL WATCH THAT
CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL SHORT-FUSE UPGRADE OF THE WIND HEADLINE.
THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW HAS LOCKED IN ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH, FROM IBAPAH TO WENDOVER
TO SNOWVILLE, WHICH HAS LEFT A DRY SLOT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE WASATCH FRONT AND WASATCH MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THE FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST, THE FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH BACK INTO WASATCH FRONT
AND MOUNTAINS BRINGING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AGAIN THIS
EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, A PERSISTENT MODERATE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD, HAVING ALREADY
BROUGHT FLASH FLOODING TO THE FORSYTH BURN SCAR EARLIER TODAY.
LOCALIZED RAINFALL REPORTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ALREADY IN THE PINE
VALLEY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FAVORED
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKE NEAR BRIAN HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. EXPECT MANY STREAMS, NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
SLOT CANYONS TO RUN HIGH AS THIS AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND OVER
THE AREA. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AS WE SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. PRONE AREAS LIKE BURN
SCARS, DRY WASHES AND SLOT CANYONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES
IF ANY HEAVY RAIN CAN TRACK OVER A POPULATION CENTER. BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START MOVING
MORE OVERHEAD ACROSS UTAH, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UINTAS AND THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS, LARGELY ABOVE 8000 FEET, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET. FINALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST UTAH (ABOVE WASHINGTON COUNTY) MAY SEE THEIR FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE) OF SUB 32 DEGREES IN THE VALLEYS IS IN THE SANPETE
AND SEVIER VALLEYS, AS WELL AS IRON AND BEAVER COUNTY AROUND AND
OUTSIDE OF CEDAR CITY AND BEAVER.
AFTER ALL THE ACTIVITY, HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 225 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KSLC...PERIODS OF VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AIRFIELD BEFORE AROUND 20-21Z AS PASSING SHOWERS DICTATE FLOW
DIRECTION. BY 20-21Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER
THE AIRFIELD AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST AT 20-25 KTS, INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 40KTS FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 22-00Z. THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH OVER THE AIRFIELD ALONGSIDE RAINFALL WITH
INCREASING INTENSITY. RAINFALL MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES, DROPPING VISIBILITY INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE ALONGSIDE CIGS
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 3KFT AGL. THIS RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 04-05Z BEFORE DIMINISHING UNTIL AROUND 07Z, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN OVER THE AIRFIELD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH
THE LATE-AFTERNOON TO EARLY-EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE NORTHER AREA TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF UTAH WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT AGL AND
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 3SM UNDER HEAVIER RAINFALL.
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING SIMILAR AVIATION HAZARDS (STRONG ERRATIC
WINDS, LOWER VIS, AND LOWER CIGS).
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVE ACROSS
UTAH TROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS STORM
WILL ALSO BRING HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH WETTING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO, BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO RESULT IN GENERALLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET IN THE UINTAS AND
FAR UPPER COTTONWOODS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LESS THEN 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ101>131.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ101-104>106-108.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ110>112-116-117-
119-126-127.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ115-122-125.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...CHURCH
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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