856
FXUS65 KSLC 120411
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1011 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL ENTER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT, INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL AND MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, BRINGING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE CACHE VALLEY, MAY SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SEEING A VERY ABNORMALLY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ARE STARTING TO PHASE WITH AN ELONGATED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NOSED
INTO NORTHWEST UTAH, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS
STARTED DEVELOP. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EARLIER WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING INCREASING COVERAGE
FROM THE FRONT. THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING INSTABILITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
RACHEL'S MOISTURE.
THIS LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WOBBLE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
LOWER, DROPPING TO 8,000 FEET OR PERHAPS LOWER LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, THIS TROUGH WILL BE
DROPPING HIGH WATER TOTALS IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ALREADY
SATURATED BY THE FIRST ROUND. THUS, THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOVING SLOWLY SO ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER, PARTICULARLY
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE
CACHE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES.
DRIER AIR IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAT. THIS WILL
BRING A STEADY DRYING TREND ALONG WITH GRADUAL WARMING. MAXES,
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION, ISSUED 623 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KSLC...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IN RAIN THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED OR OTHER
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CIGS
PREDOMINATELY AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET AGL. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NORTHWEST WINDS LASTING LATER THAN EXPECTED.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, LASTING INTO THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY
WINDS ARE SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE AS WINDS STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF IT. THE FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS OVERALL
BECOMING LESS GUSTY.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 231 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM MOVE ACROSS
UTAH TROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS STORM
WILL ALSO BRING HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH WETTING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALSO, BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ENOUGH TO RESULT IN GENERALLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET IN THE UINTAS AND
FAR UPPER COTTONWOODS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LESS THEN 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR UTZ101>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page