005
FXUS65 KSLC 121939
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
139 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1011 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL ENTER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TONIGHT, INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL AND MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, BRINGING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE CACHE VALLEY, MAY SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1011 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SEEING A VERY ABNORMALLY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ARE STARTING TO PHASE WITH AN ELONGATED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NOSED
INTO NORTHWEST UTAH, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS
STARTED DEVELOP. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EARLIER WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING INCREASING COVERAGE
FROM THE FRONT. THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING INSTABILITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
RACHEL'S MOISTURE.
THIS LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WOBBLE ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
LOWER, DROPPING TO 8,000 FEET OR PERHAPS LOWER LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, THIS TROUGH WILL BE
DROPPING HIGH WATER TOTALS IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ALREADY
SATURATED BY THE FIRST ROUND. THUS, THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOVING SLOWLY SO ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER, PARTICULARLY
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE
CACHE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS AS CLOUD COVER
DECREASES.
DRIER AIR IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAT. THIS WILL
BRING A STEADY DRYING TREND ALONG WITH GRADUAL WARMING. MAXES,
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
KSLC...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND RAIN RETURN TOMORROW ~17Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS ~30%
CHANCE WINDS WILL JUST REMAIN NORTHERLY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE WITH LOWERED CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL, BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY,
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 149 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION, COOLER AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS INTO THE 7000 TO 8000
FOOT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ101>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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