321
FXUS65 KSLC 140350
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
949 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 121 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
PROVIDING RENEWED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT LOWER, WITH A
DRYING TREND TAKING HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCATIONS SUCH AS
EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY, JUAB / MILLARD COUNTIES, SANPETE VALLEY,
AND HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY MORNINGS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) EXISTS REGARDING ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 121 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
PER CURRENT MESOANALYSIS, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY MEANDERING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WITH TIME, THESE FEATURES WILL DEEPEN AND
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT BEFORE EJECTING EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS DEEPENING OCCURS, WIDESPREAD ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE ATOP WIDESPREAD MOISTURE RENEWING LOW ELEVATION RAINFALL
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THANKFULLY, WITH MORE MODEST AND WIDESPREAD
ASCENT, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN PRIOR
DAYS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
SATURATED SOILS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
VIA NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS SUCH AS
EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY, JUAB / MILLARD COUNTIES, SANPETE VALLEY,
AND HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH TO SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SEVIER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF DUCHESNE COUNTY,
THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR THIS WERE LOWER (<40%), WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES REMAINING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS, WITH MORE FREEZE PRODUCT ISSUANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COUPLE LOCATIONS STAND OUT REGARDING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STARTING WITH GAP WINDS ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE MID-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES EAST, A TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT WHICH MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO
AROUND 40MPH ALONG AREAS OF I-15 IN WASHINGTON COUNTY, POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40MPH AT TIMES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE
DURATION AND EXTREMES OF THIS EVENT, THUS PRECLUDING ANY WIND
PRODUCT ISSUANCES AT THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR HIGHER GUSTS INCREASE
SOMEWHAT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
THE NEXT WIND EVENT IN THE FORECAST LOOKS TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, CLOCKING MID-LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
AROUND THE THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS SOME OF OUR WESTERN VALLEYS
ALONG N/S FACING TERRAIN. GIVEN MORE MODEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS MAY END
UP AS A CANYON WIND EVENT FAVORING THE OGDEN-FARMINGTON CORRIDOR,
THOUGH A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE CARRY GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH (SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER) INTO THE SLC CORRIDOR. NO PRODUCT ISSUANCE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY
SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS WE ENTER
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS ANOTHER TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST WITH >80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS MORE MOUNTAIN
SNOW GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -2C TO -5C. GUIDANCE
VARIES REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM, THUS INFLUENCING
HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH, RESULTING IN A NOTABLE SPREAD
REGARDING ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
KSLC...PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CIGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER
AROUND 09-10Z. THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IN SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. FOR AREAS UNDER RAINFALL, A REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, WHILE
LIGHT SNOWFALL, LOW CEILINGS, AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CAUSE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. EASTERN UTAH WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 121 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN RENEWING CHANCES FOR
VALLEY RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL (SNOW LEVELS AROUND
7000-8000FT) THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION LEAVING A COOL
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. INTO THE WEEKEND, A DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARING TO OCCUR
MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM, CANYON
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW INSTANCES OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ103-115-116-118-
122.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ111-112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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