252
FXUS65 KSLC 140847
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
247 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
-VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
OVER EASTERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY CROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS OF WESTERN UTAH
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH ASSOCIATED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY SPOTTY. ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION, THE
SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT QUITE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH
MAXES TODAY HAVING RUN 15-20F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING IN THIS AIRMASS, SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS OVER
WESTERN UTAH WILL SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. GOING FREEZE WARNING
COVERS THIS THREAT WELL. THE THREAT OF FREEZING LOWS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW IS ON TRACK TO TREK ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY,
ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF MODELS STRUGGLING WITH CLOSED LOWS. THUS, THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW, FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN UTAH. THE POSITION OF THE LOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY, THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
CREATING A PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS OVER
PRONE AREAS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION IS UNIMPRESSIVE, LIMITING THE THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BRING A MORE
UNCOMMON EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
BRING SOME CANYON WINDS TO PRONE AREAS OF THE WASATCH FRONT. AS IS
THE CASE WITH THE WASHINGTON COUNTY WIND THREAT, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING IS MODEST
AT BEST, KEEPING THE CHANCE OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS LOW.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN, BRINGING DRIER AIR
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO BE DISLODGED BY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, HOWEVER,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE LOSS OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE AGAIN OPENS UP THE STORM TRACK FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS, THERE REMAINS NOTICEABLE SPREAD AS
TO WHEN A STORM SYSTEM MIGHT IMPACT THE AREA, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING BEGINNING TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY,
DETAILS ON ANY PARTICULAR SYSTEM REMAIN DIM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION, ISSUED 949 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KSLC...PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CIGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER
AROUND 09-10Z. THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IN SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. FOR AREAS UNDER RAINFALL, A REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, WHILE
LIGHT SNOWFALL, LOW CEILINGS, AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CAUSE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. EASTERN UTAH WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
PERSIST MAINLY EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGINNING BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE MID-OCTOBER SUN ANGLE, AN INVERSION ALOFT AND
WEAK WINDS, MIXING WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ103-115-116-
118-122.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ111-112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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