747
FXUS65 KSLC 141828
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1228 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UTAH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN UTAH IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.
- COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS OF WESTERN UTAH THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH ASSOCIATED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY SPOTTY. ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION, THE
SYSTEM HAS ALSO BROUGHT QUITE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH
MAXES TODAY HAVING RUN 15-20F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING IN THIS AIRMASS, SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS OVER
WESTERN UTAH WILL SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. GOING FREEZE WARNING
COVERS THIS THREAT WELL. THE THREAT OF FREEZING LOWS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW IS ON TRACK TO TREK ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY,
ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF MODELS STRUGGLING WITH CLOSED LOWS. THUS, THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW, FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN UTAH. THE POSITION OF THE LOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY, THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
CREATING A PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS OVER
PRONE AREAS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION IS UNIMPRESSIVE, LIMITING THE THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BRING A MORE
UNCOMMON EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
BRING SOME CANYON WINDS TO PRONE AREAS OF THE WASATCH FRONT. AS IS
THE CASE WITH THE WASHINGTON COUNTY WIND THREAT, THE ASSOCIATED
COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING IS MODEST
AT BEST, KEEPING THE CHANCE OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS LOW.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN, BRINGING DRIER AIR
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO BE DISLODGED BY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, HOWEVER,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE LOSS OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE AGAIN OPENS UP THE STORM TRACK FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS, THERE REMAINS NOTICEABLE SPREAD AS
TO WHEN A STORM SYSTEM MIGHT IMPACT THE AREA, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING BEGINNING TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY,
DETAILS ON ANY PARTICULAR SYSTEM REMAIN DIM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION, ISSUED 629 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KSLC...LOW END VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT
KSLC. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS/VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BEYOND 15Z
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WIDESPREAD LOW-END VFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, AND LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY NEAR KEVW.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN UT RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR AREAS EAST OF I-15. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY, BRINGING A DRYING AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO
ALL OF UTAH INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK WINDS, INVERSION DEVELOPMENT, AND OCTOBER SUN
ANGLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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