662
FXUS65 KSLC 141849
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1249 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER EAST ACROSS UTAH PROVIDING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-15. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UINTAS (PRIMARILY NORTHERN SLOPES) AND OUR CENTRAL UTAH
MOUNTAINS.
- A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS THURSDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCATIONS SUCH AS
EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY, JUAB / MILLARD COUNTIES, SANPETE VALLEY,
AND HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO EXIST REGARDING ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS
NOW 50/50 ON A SOUTHERN SPLIT TRACK VERSUS THE TROUGH HOLDING ITSELF
TOGETHER, RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
UT. ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW ELEVATION RAINFALL AND
SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN UINTAS AND CENTRAL UT MOUNTAINS INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST, A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL DIP SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AZ/CA BORDER SPINNING UP A LARGE, ALBEIT WEAK, TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, SLOWLY RETROGRESSING SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL YIELD MILD CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY PATTERN
DEVELOPING. EVENTUALLY, THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO PHASE BACK
INTO WEAK MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SYSTEM.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
SUGGESTING THE CANYON WIND / LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE EVENT WILL BE MORE
LIMITED THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS IS DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW SLIDING
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER TIME THAN INITIALLY FORECAST IN
PRIOR CYCLES. REGARDLESS, TYPICALLY WINDY SPOTS (SUCH AS OGDEN AND
FARMINGTON CANYONS) MAY SEE GUSTS TO 45MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITIES OF EACH RESPECTIVE CANYON MOUTH.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT, A GAP WIND EVENT STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
NORTHWEST FLOW AMIDST A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF. WHILE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 45MPH (70% CHANCE) LOOK TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 2-6AM
TIMEFRAME PRIMARILY NEAR THE BEAVER DAM MOUNTAINS AND BLACKROCK
CANYON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE NOON.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AROUND
TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (>80%).
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE NOW SPLIT REGARDING
TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD GREATLY IMPACT WHAT WE SEE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST SOLUTION KEEPS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN
TACT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO UT AND
SOUTHWEST WY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN TACT IS PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO THIS SCENARIO AS IT WILL DRAW IN NOTABLY COLDER AIR,
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS, UNFORTUNATELY, QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE SAW MANY SYSTEMS DO AT THE START OF THE 2025-2026 SEASON WHERE
THE SYSTEM "CUTS OFF" AND FORMS A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PREVENT MORE ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WARMER SYSTEM FAVORING SNOWFALL ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATION SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
WOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ASCENT FURTHER NORTH WITH NORTHERN UT SEEING
WEAKER RAIN SHOWERS AND LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THESE EARLY
SEASON SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIMEFRAME,
AND THIS FORECAST WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE MAJOR CHANGES OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 9Z TOMORROW. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASE AROUND 5000 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 0Z. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THOSE CHANCES
COMPLETELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BUT ALSO VARIABLE AT TIMES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOG AND LOW CEILING AT THE KEVW
TERMINAL. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASE BETWEEN 2000-5000 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 0Z. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THOSE CHANCES
COMPLETELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN UT RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR AREAS EAST OF I-15. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY, BRINGING A DRYING AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO
ALL OF UTAH INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK WINDS, INVERSION DEVELOPMENT, AND OCTOBER SUN
ANGLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page