680
FXUS65 KSLC 151135
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
534 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1017 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH TONIGHT
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AREAWIDE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL
IN THE TIMING OR DETAILS OF ANY SYSTEMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1017 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED
INTO COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY BEHIND IT, BUT
SOME SHOWERS PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT, THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH.
TEMPERATURES STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE TODAY WITH MAXES RUNNING
10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH A BIT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE REX BLOCK BREAKING BY SATURDAY AS A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES IT OUT OF THE WAY BEFORE TRACKING
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE WOULD OPEN UP
THE WEST TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE MOST POPULAR SOLUTION BRINGS A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO
THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
(INCLUDING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF) KEEP THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST LONGER. MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CLOSED LOW FEATURES,
SO HOPEFULLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS COMES IN FUTURE RUNS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE 16Z THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WIND THIS EVENING AROUND 02Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT KEVW THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE
WINDS AT THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN TAF SITES REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KCDC AND KSGU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 219 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY
MOVE EAST TODAY, LEAVING A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER TODAY,
BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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