016
FXUS65 KSLC 151822
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1222 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1017 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH TONIGHT
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AREAWIDE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL
IN THE TIMING OR DETAILS OF ANY SYSTEMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1017 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED
INTO COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY BEHIND IT, BUT
SOME SHOWERS PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT, THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH.
TEMPERATURES STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE TODAY WITH MAXES RUNNING
10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH A BIT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE REX BLOCK BREAKING BY SATURDAY AS A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES IT OUT OF THE WAY BEFORE TRACKING
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE WOULD OPEN UP
THE WEST TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE MOST POPULAR SOLUTION BRINGS A PACIFIC SYSTEM ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN DUE TO
THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
(INCLUDING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF) KEEP THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST LONGER. MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CLOSED LOW FEATURES,
SO HOPEFULLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS COMES IN FUTURE RUNS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SOUTHEASTERLIES AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AROUND 19Z TOMORROW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KEVW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE WINDS AT THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN TAF SITES REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KCDC AND KSGU BY EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1143 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPING CONDITIONS MODERATED AND
CALM. WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND STABLE, CLEAR SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, CLOSER TO
NEAR-NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEARLY ALL OF UT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SYSTEM
WHICH IS FORECAST TO USHER IN MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDWEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
UTZ116-118-119.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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